Growth Simulator
Simulate 12 months of growth before you spend. Compare paid-only, SEO-heavy, and blended channel mixes month by month from your budget, CAC, ACV, and churn.
// from the lab: Growth Strategy Simulator. Exploring how AI can simulate marketing strategies, funnels, and growth scenarios before execution.
Interactive tool
12-month customer growth
How it works
The simulator runs three parallel channel models using the same budget, CAC, and churn inputs. Each channel has a base efficiency factor and a monthly compound rate. Paid-only runs at 1.0x base efficiency with no compounding: every dollar buys the same number of customers each month. SEO-heavy starts at 0.70x base efficiency but compounds at 5% per month, simulating the slow build of organic reach. Blended starts at 0.85x and compounds at 2% per month.
For each month in the simulation, the model calculates a channel efficiency value as: base times (1 + compound rate) raised to the month index. New customers acquired that month equals the floor of (monthly budget times efficiency) divided by CAC. Active customers at end of month equals the floor of previous active customers times (1 minus churn rate), plus the new customers acquired. This means churn is applied before adding new customers, which is the conservative calculation.
The simulation runs for 12 months, and the chart shows every one of them. MRR at any point is active customers multiplied by ACV.
The key design insight is what the curves reveal over time. Paid-only grows linearly and stops the moment budget stops. SEO starts at 70% of paid's efficiency, but at 5% monthly compounding it is about 71% more efficient in month 12 than in month 1, and from month 9 or 10 it wins more new customers each month than paid does. Total customers lag behind that: at a monthly churn of 10% or less, SEO-heavy almost always stays behind paid-only for all 12 months shown, and in the same model it catches up in months 13 to 16. With the default inputs it ends month 12 at 394 customers against 415 for paid-only and passes it in month 14. The months between those two crossings are the core argument for giving organic investment a longer time horizon than most growth plans do. The blended channel sits between the two, compounding more slowly but starting from a higher base than SEO.
The numbers are illustrative, not predictive. Real CAC varies by month and channel maturity. Use the simulator to stress-test your assumptions, not to forecast revenue.
Built by Amrudin Catic.
Common questions
- Why does SEO start at 0.70x base efficiency?
- Organic acquisition has a longer time-to-first-customer than paid. The lower starting efficiency models the real-world cost of building authority before traffic compounds.
- Are these numbers predictive?
- No. They are illustrative. Real CAC varies by month and channel maturity. Use the simulator to stress-test channel-mix assumptions, not to forecast revenue.
- When does SEO overtake paid in this model?
- It depends on what you count. At 5% monthly compounding, SEO is about 71% more efficient in month 12 than in month 1, so it wins more new customers per month than paid from month 9 or 10. Total customers take longer: at a monthly churn of 10% or less, SEO-heavy almost always stays behind paid-only for the whole 12 months shown and passes it in months 13 to 16. Only at very high churn, around 15% a month, can it edge ahead by month 12.
▸ Beyond the simulation
This stress-tests assumptions. It is not a forecast.
The real model needs your actual stack: attribution, channel mix, conversion economics, and what is already broken. Twenty minutes will tell us if it is worth scoping.